HVAC 2013 Expert Predictions!.

Hi Experts 2013 Predictions;

Tim Kane

President

Goodway Technologies Corp.

1. Improved Economy will Trickle Down to HVAC Community;

I believe there will be a gradually improving economy that will be based on strong new housing start numbers and better than expected GNP data. This will trickle down to the HVAC community with stronger numbers than recent years.

1. Strong Sales of High-Quality & Efficient HVAC Systems;

In terms of “hot” products I think we will continue to see very strong sales for independent AC appliance sales with mini-splits leading the way. The trend is toward smaller “package” style units that work autonomously and are oftentimes more efficient than the older integral building HVAC systems. I expect a continued flight to quality/efficiency-based heating and cooling appliances.

1. Increase in Knowledgeable HVAC Contractors;

HVAC contractors have become stronger and better and more knowledgeable at what they do. I believe that this will continue in 2013 and that a good portion of the HVAC contractors will experience improved revenue and profitability numbers.

Tim Robb

Director, Digital Marketing & Strategic Business Development

Goodway Technologies Corp.

1. Regional Energy Efficiency Standards Increase;

Regional energy efficiency standards will be increasing in stature, promoting national reviews and policy of HVAC power usage. We see it in California where the utilities are in direct conversation with the HVAC industry associations to better manage HVAC power consumption. In some states HVAC represents over 50%-65% of all power consumption. While new systems will undoubtedly continue to be more energy efficient, other technologies like whole house fans, geothermal and cogeneration with solar and domestic/commercial hot water will likely enter the conversation quicker. Additionally, newer and more efficient maintenance tools and procedures will become more important to the energy efficiency conversation.

1. Greater Focus on Indoor Air Quality (IAQ);

Discussion of indoor air quality (IAQ) on many levels will begin to enter the mainstream conversation of health and well being. Part of this conversation will be driven by preparedness for natural disasters, while other parts will include the HVAC system and the product it makes (indoor air). Smart employers will not only look at medical insurance and its well-being programs as part of their employee health quotients, but also look at their surroundings and the air they breathe. As such, focus on maintenance, airborne particulates, bacteria and odor will become important parts of the discussion.

1. Power Plants to Maximize Costs Per Energy Production Unit;

As natural gas, oil and other commodity energy prices continue to fluctuate – and cap and trade policies strengthen – smart energy producers will be looking more holistically at their power plants to maximize their costs per energy production unit. Increased cost in scrubbers will mean offsets somewhere else. That means no longer just looking at the core energy production sections of their plants in order to manage costs, but looking at the complete balance of plant (BOP) structure. That means more efficient HVAC, heat ex-changers, air compressors, etc.

Robert Baker

Managing Director

BBJ Consulting Service

1. Significant HVAC Focus on Sustainability;

Green/sustainability will continue to be important themes in HVAC direction in 2013. Clean heat transfer surfaces will be increasingly recognized as key requirements in high quality buildings

1. Increased Awareness of Weather-Related Disasters;

A new trend will be issues brought to the surface by Hurricane Sandy. For starters; mold and dampness issues are not related to hot/humid sections of the country. As weather warms up in the parts of the country hit by Hurricane Sandy, the impact of high moisture in even moderate climates will be highlighted. And, catastrophic weather will no longer be something that happens to “others” in relatively low population density areas. Major weather-related disasters will be recognized as something that can (and probably will with increasing frequency) happen anywhere.

1. "Disaster-Proof" HVAC Systems;

There is going to be a lot of discussion about how HVAC systems can be designed, operated and maintained so as to be more “disaster proof.”

Mark Lowry

Executive Vice President

RSES: The HVACR Training Authority

1. Demand for Optimal Efficiency from Existing HVAC Systems;

Equipment owners will demonstrate an increased demand for optimal efficiency out of existing systems. Those owners with the ability to upgrade to high efficiency replacements will continue to do so, but for many, maintenance and repair with an eye toward getting the existing equipment to operate at improved efficiency levels is going to be the preferred route.

1. HVAC Expansion into Building Performance Arena;

HVAC contractors will continue to expand into the whole building performance arena. As more customers become aware of whole building performance, and the critical role their HVAC contractors play in that equation, more HVAC contractors are going to start expanding their business services to include energy auditing and remediation of sub-optimal conditions. At the very least more HVAC contractors are going to develop networks of roofing, siding, window/door and insulation business partners to recommend to building owners.

1. Increased Adoption of Geothermal System;

As the installation costs continue to come down, the payback periods are getting smaller for equipment owners. As more contractors learn how to install and maintain these systems, the large federal tax rebates make these low-operating cost systems more and more attractive to decision makers.

Kenneth Simonson

Chief Economist

The Associated General Contractors of America

1. Strong Multi-Family Home Construction;

I think it will be another strong year for multi-family construction, which reflects the growth of jobs that I think will accelerate a little bit in 2013. I believe that single family will start the year strong and then flatten out in 2013. I think that there will be some rebuilds and mixed use – where retail is going into the first floor of an apartment building – in the office and retail markets.

1. More Energy-Efficient Controls and Mechanical Systems;

Technology will continue to be a driver whether through regulatory edicts or from companies looking at their own bottom lines. I think that there will be continuing pressure from public agencies, landlords and image-conscious building owners to adopt more energy-efficient controls and mechanical systems. We will continue see mandates and incentives imposed by different states or by the federal government on the buildings they lease or put up for their own uses. Collectively private owners will be looking for technologies that can deliver a payoff.

1. Increase in Warehouse and Data Center Markets;

I think there are two smaller markets that are going to remain active that have implications for HVAC. The warehouse market will continue to grow with large, very efficient warehouses being located close to metropolitan areas. And data centers with their very intense cooling needs continue to be a strong growth niche for HVAC.

Emil Salazar

Market Analyst

SBI Energy

1. Product Development for Zero-Energy Buildings;

HVAC system manufacturers and integrators to devote more product 

development, 

to zero-energy and net zero-energy buildings: Designing a building in such a way 

that energy efficiency and on-site production convert it from an energy consumer 

to an energy producer lies at the heart of the zero-energy building (ZEB) concept. 

A ZEB is a building that produces as much energy as it uses when measured at 

the site. For ZEBs to flourish, HVAC manufacturers and designers must better 

integrate systems into buildings that may be significantly different from most 

modern building designs. Engineers will need the tools to design and apply better 

integrated equipment, manufacturers will need to produce ultra-high efficiency 

equipment and know how to best apply it to buildings, and both will have need to 

provide comfortable living conditions. Where possible, the incorporation of power 

from renewable energy sources also adds efficiencies to HVAC and electrical 

systems.

1. Growth in Internet-Enabled Sensor and Control Devices;

Sensor and control devices – particularly internet-enabled platforms – represent high-growth opportunities for HVAC manufacturers, vendors and installers: Proliferation of sensor and control devices that improve energy efficiency are other green product sales opportunities many HVAC manufacturers will capitalize on throughout 2013. Consumers will ramp up installations of household devices that afford more control of their heating and cooling temperatures and enable them to reduce energy loss and improve how they manage their thermal environment. They will also look to install smart control and monitoring devices that streamline HVAC performance from a central or remote location. Look for 10% market growth in internet-enabled HVAC monitoring devices to reach a 2013 U.S. market size of over $500 million.

1. Increase in Indoor Air Quality (IAQ) Products;

HVAC manufacturers seize opportunities in the IAQ product market: HVAC manufacturers are exploring opportunities in indoor air quality (IAQ) products that are more efficient and environmentally friendly. Newer HVAC technologies provide extra comfort and better air purification while reducing operating costs and lowering the environmental footprint. IAQ products give manufacturers the ability to diversify their product offerings and promote themselves as green businesses. I expect IAQ technologies will create ancillary revenue streams for leading HVAC manufacturers willing to invest capital in expanding their product lines and pursue this burgeoning market opportunity which includes applications such as duct cleaning, air filtration, and anti-microbial fogging (sanitizing the air). The overall US market for Indoor Air Quality products including double scroll compressors, inverter technologies and smart cooling fans and refrigerants is expected to reach nearly $8 billion in 2013 – representing a major market opportunity for HVAC manufacturers.

Christopher Burney

Executive Director of Planning, Design, and Construction

University of Mississippi Medical Center

1. Better Bacterial/Fungal Management;

I think that the industry has had a good handle on bacterial control in air systems 

for a long time. However, I do think that there is a growing problem (No pun 

intended) with fungal contamination. So much of it is within the structure and 

there are very few ways to control once it starts. I see the keys to this as better 

basic maintenance and better control of details during construction. Weep holes 

and flashing details must be carefully constructed, and we all need to remember 

that caulk, no matter who the manufacturer is, is never a life time product. If we 

can prevent the constant wetting of products, then there is little chance that mold 

will grow.

1. Increase in Self-Reliant HVAC Systems;

There is a growing awareness that had its genesis in Hurricane Katrina that for those of us who are involved in industries that cannot shut down, we have to adopt the creed that “We will be alone.” So we must move toward the ability to maintain operations while receiving no support from the outside. This includes the ability to reliably generate on-site power, maintain an adequate onsite, protected supply of fuel, and to be able to feed and house our captive workers and in the case of hospitals, patients.

1. Emphasis on Technical Education and Training;

Where I really see a problem is the aging of the workforce. There are so many incredibly talented trades people that are now in their 50s and approaching retirement and the talent pool to replace them is thin. As a society, we have to put an emphasis on the value of technical education and training or there will not be enough plumbers, steam fitters, machinists, or electricians.